From - Fri May 17 00:28:10 2002 From: david_l_simpson@yahoo.com (Dave Simpson) Newsgroups: alt.org.sierra-club,alt.politics.immigration,alt.politics.greens Subject: Re: Sprawl insights Date: 16 May 2002 09:26:08 -0700 Organization: http://groups.google.com/ Lines: 83 Message-ID: <23e7f86e.0205160826.64b271be@posting.google.com> References: <3CD2BB3B.220172B2@earthlink.net> <3CD47B61.2E2451B4@earthlink.net> <3CD7F504.8962E92F@earthlink.net> <23e7f86e.0205080921.7fdc9dd5@posting.google.com> <3CDDA6D0.83939FE3@earthlink.net> <23e7f86e.0205151503.5e4509c2@posting.google.com> <3CE2EEE1.F40B4EB5@earthops.net> NNTP-Posting-Host: 204.184.14.144 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=ISO-8859-1 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit X-Trace: posting.google.com 1021566368 24005 127.0.0.1 (16 May 2002 16:26:08 GMT) X-Complaints-To: groups-abuse@google.com NNTP-Posting-Date: 16 May 2002 16:26:08 GMT Path: vienna7.his.com!news.lightlink.com!nntp-out.monmouth.com!newspeer.monmouth.com!cyclone.bc.net!newsfeed.stanford.edu!postnews1.google.com!not-for-mail Xref: vienna7.his.com alt.org.sierra-club:751 alt.politics.immigration:10349 alt.politics.greens:11462 Tiny Human Ferret wrote: > Dave, I forget who did the study, but there was one done recently, which > came to the conclusion that the likelihood of a society becoming bellicose > was directly related to the proportion of older to younger men. I believe > the rule of thumb for this was that when you have less than 1 older man for > every 4 younger men, war is essentially inevitable. > > If you can find that, let me know, I want to read the whole thing. "World Peace, Thanks to Old Men?" "... Mesquida and Weiner [3,4] have measured a striking relation, previously noticed by Moller, between the severity of war and the age distribution of a nation's population. Specifically, they have found a strong correlation, across nations, between the logarithm of number of soldiers killed in combat and the nation's male age ratio (MAR), defined as the number of men aged 15-29 for every 100 men aged 30+ in a nation. ..." http://hanson.gmu.edu/worldpeace.html Male Age Ratio by Country and Year http://hanson.gmu.edu/MARtable.html Wars, Massacres, and Atrocities of the Twentieth Century http://users.erols.com/mwhite28/war-1900.htm Countries with Youth Bulges in 2000 and 2015 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/753973.gif Regional Population by Age Group, 2000 and 2015 http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/375779.gif Global Population 1950-2015, and Growth Rates http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/375777.gif Growth in Megacities http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/753949.gif "...Russia and many post-Communist countries of Eastern Europe will have declining populations. As a result of high mortality and low birthrates, Russia's population may drop from its current 146 million to as low as 130 to 135 million in 2015, while the neighboring states of Central Asia will experience continued population growth. In Japan and West European countries such as Italy and Spain, populations also will decline in the absence of dramatic increases in birthrates or immigration. North America, Australia, and New Zealand—the traditional magnets for migrants—will continue to have the highest rates of population growth among the developed countries, with annual population growth rates between 0.7 percent and 1.0 percent. ... European and Japanese populations are aging rapidly [at a greater rate than in North America, and giving us early warning], requiring more than 110 million new workers by 2015 to maintain current dependency ratios between the working population and retirees. For these countries, immigration is a controversial means of meeting these labor force requirements. Conflicts over the social contract or immigration policies in major European states could dampen economic growth. Japan faces an even more serious labor force shortage and its strategies for responding—enticing overseas Japanese to return, broadening the opportunities for women, and increasing investments elsewhere in Asia—may prove inadequate. ..." http://www.odci.gov/cia/publications/globaltrends2015/ Dave Simpson